Human Capital, Employment And The Widening Productivity Gap In Kashkadarya Region, Uzbekistan: A Statistical Benchmarking Study, 2017–2024

Abstract

Kashkadarya is the third most populous region of Uzbekistan, yet its share of national output is well below its share of population. This paper tests, rather than assumes, the view that the region has a large potential that is not realised. Using official SIAT data for the 14 regions of Uzbekistan for 2017-2024, it benchmarks Kashkadarya against the national level and a peer group, decomposes the gap in gross regional product (GRP) per capita into labour productivity, employment and demographic components, compares the region’s human-capital resources with national levels and uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist index to assess efficiency. Kashkadarya’s GRP per capita fell from 0.85 to 0.65 of the national level in current prices and to 0.73 in constant prices; real GRP per capita grew by 2.4% a year against 4.6% nationally. Labour productivity accounts for 86% of the 2024 gap, whereas the employment rate is close to the national level. The share of formal employment fell from 30.5% to 27.9% while rising nationally, and relative wages declined. The region has fewer than half the national density of higher-education teachers and two-thirds of the density of doctors. It is efficient in converting these limited resources into employment but not into output. The findings suggest that regional policy should shift from the number of jobs to their productivity and formality and expand higher-education and health capacity.

Keywords

human capital; regional productivity; employment; informal sector; data envelopment analysis; Kashkadarya; Uzbekistan

Authors & affiliations